Aylburton Flood Modelling – Community Feedback

Gloucestershire County Council has been exploring options to reduce flood risk in Aylburton associated with the culvert under the A48. Earlier this year, we worked with Lydney Park Estate to undertake some Natural Flood Management (NFM) near the top of the catchment to try and slow some of the flow and reduce the peak downstream.

Alongside this, we have also been working with a consultant to undertake hydrological modelling of the area. This will allow us to have a better understanding of the flood risk and any potential options for reducing this further. Our consultant has been working on creating a baseline model to represent the current situation. Before we progress with modelling any options, we would like to invite the community to give feedback on the baseline model results. This will allow us to validate the model and be confident that it is representing what happens on the ground before progressing further.

We have three model outputs. The first shows the results of a 1 in 2 year event, or an event that has a 50% chance of happening in any given year, the second is the results of a 1 in 30 year event (3.3% chance in any given year) and finally a 1 in 100 year event, or one that has a 1% chance of happening in any given year. The 1 in 2 year event is a much more frequently occurring event, while the 1 in 100 year event is a more extreme event. Please note, the model only shows the risk from the watercourse, it does not include surface water flooding.

We would welcome any feedback the local community can provide, particularly on the flood extents and depths. Feedback can be sent to the clerk by emailing clerk@aylburton-pc.gov.uk